Milwaukee Poised to Cover at Miami for Second Night in a Row: Bucks -6.5 -110

The Bucks beat the snot out of the Heat yesterday, finishing Tuesday's action with a 47 point margin of victory (144-97). The NBA has instituted "baseball-style" series to reduce travel in the current age of Covid (the same two teams play back-to-backs in the same city), so these squads will face off again today before ultimately parting company.

We like Milwaukee to repeat yesterday's feat and collect the straight up win and cover. While we are not necessarily calling for another 40+ point blowout, our computers forecast the Bucks leaving South Beach tonight with a solid, double-digit margin of victory.

Supporting the prediction indicated by our machines, we note that the impact of big losses does appear to have an, at least temporary, lingering effect:

Teams playing on no rest after losses by at least 30 points have proven solid fades, good for about a 10% return on investment (ROI) back to 2005.

A separate history-based system likewise supports the Bucks effort ATS in their second matchup with the Heat in as many days.

In early season, non-division matchups between teams that both made the prior playoffs, betting against home teams off losses has been a significantly and consistently profitable strategy, amassing a long-term ROI of 25%.

This latter system is founded on the hypotheses that home teams are commonly overvalued, and that better teams tend to exhibit at least a very short-term momentum effect.

This set of criteria is 3-1 ATS on the season.

Personnel note: Heat Small Forward, Jimmy Butler, will not participate in Wednesday's proceedings. Butler has not seen action since exiting the Christmas Day game versus the Pelicans with ankle soreness.

Happy betting!!