NBA picks (Jan 5): 19-16 ATS (54%), 5% ROI

Betting on the Beard, following an unexpected loss: Rockets +2

In non-division clashes between good teams (i.e. that both made the prior playoffs), fading home teams off slim victories has proven a winning long-term strategy, good for a 17% long-term return on investment and notching only four losing seasons since 2005. This system is 1-0 ATS so far this year.

We think that after mustering the extra physical and mental fortitude necessary to ward off unexpectedly game opponents, teams are spent, and struggle to generate the energy and focus required to secure the following cover.

The Pelicans gave the Pacers all they could handle Monday, matching Indy bucket for bucket through 48 minutes of regulation, and for most of an extra session. Ultimately though, Indiana eked out the two-point overtime win, but the Pacers will lay two points as hosts to the Rockets this evening. This setup triggers a play on the Rockets, per this system.

Separately, the Rockets are coming off a surprise loss to the Mavs Monday and are now travelling outside their conference for a pretty even matchup. These conditions likewise support the road cover this afternoon.

Road teams immediately off losses as the favorite, after making the prior playoffs, have been strong bets in non-conference action featuring spreads of no more than a bucket.

This system is 8-3 ATS this season.

Thus, our take on history seems to favor Houston to beat the number Wednesday. We are positioning accordingly.

Happy betting!!