Taking the Cavs and the bucket vs. the Knicks Friday

When teams with losing records match up early in the NBA season, the favorite has exhibited a modest edge, historically, covering a nominally profitable 53% of the time.

This result implies that it takes the market some time to suss out differences in ability between teams on the lowest rungs of the competitive ladder. While this calibration process is underway, slight value is evident with underdogs.

This thesis becomes downright exploitable though when add some parameters around what "bad" is.

For instance, teams that didn't make the prior post-season, win no more then 45% of games played and are laying points to other squads with no better then 45% win rates have proven solid fades during the first quarter of the regular season.

This system has delivered a 12% long term return on investment, with only two years since 2005 with a cover rate south of 50%. Further, this approach is 4-1 ATS so far this year.

The Knicks and Cavs are both 5-7 on the season. New York laying the two to a Cleveland triggers a play on the Cavaliers, per this system.

Happy betting!!