NBA picks (Jan 5): 19-16 ATS (54%), 5% ROI

Siding with the Thunder +8, Raptors +3.5 and Bulls +7 Wednesday

We are betting the Thunder, Raptors and Bulls each beat the number on January 6. Supporting our expectation for the Thunder cover specifically, we note that Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight's NBA forecasting engine finds value with Oklahoma City, slating the Pelicans as 5.5-6 points favorites (FiveThirtyEight sees nominal value with the Bulls +7 at the Kings, and is neutral on the Raptors +3.5 at the Suns).

Consistent with our thinking, in early NBA, non-division action meaningful favorites on ATS losing streaks have proven solid fades, producing a 9% long term return and 26% season-to-date ROI (on 11-6 ATS).

The three aforementioned teams fit this system. We observe additional environmental support for the Bulls cover though.

NBA teams taking points on the road after playing the night before have likewise proven profitable bets over the long term, especially playing outside their conference.

(The Blazers host Chicago Tuesday before the Bulls hightail it to California's capitol to take points at the Kings Wednesday.)

This system has delivered about a 15% return since 2004, with only four losing seasons over that span.

Happy betting!!