2020 NBA Action: Back a Depleted Rockets Squad Saturday?
Updated: Dec 26, 2020
We like the covid-stricken Houston Rockets at the Portland Trail Blazers Saturday evening. Our computer simulation routines not only call for the road dog cover, but actually see the potential for a narrow Rockets straight up win. Inline with this signal, we observe historical context in support of the the road team beating the number from this spot. Accordingly, we are biting down on the stick and taking Houston +7.5 points.
We note that Portland's game 1 experience fits with the idea that today's contest probably belongs to Houston versus the number. The Utah Jazz came into the Moda Center in Wednesday's opener and doled out a 20-point spanking to the Blazers.
Historically, teams off big losses in the midst of home stands have proven solid fades since 2005. This simple strategy has delivered a 12% return on investment since 2005.
Additionally, historically, backing teams taking points in their season opener, after a bad season versus the number, has proven a profitable strategy, good for a 16% long-term ROI.
We also know that in non-divisional action featuring teams that both made the last playoffs, fading home teams off a loss has been a moneymaker early in the season, good for a whopping 25% long-term return on investment.
(Worth mentioning, the last two history-based systems referenced above are a meager 5-5 ATS season-to-date. Nonetheless, we regard the weight of aggregated environmental data as ).
Finally, as crazy as it sounds to back a team with barely enough active bodies to qualify for competition, we point out that bigger, presumably better informed bettors appear to be aligned with our thinking.
While the Rockets have garnered a minority of ATS bets by volume and dollar amount, the line has tightened from Rockets +8.5 to +7.5 so far, suggesting that well-respected, presumably better informed bettors (though few in number) have come in on Houston and muscled the spread lower.