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202-22 NBA Playoffs: Betting on Defense in Mavs @ Suns, Game 7

Mavericks at Suns u205

The Mavs have given the top seed in the West all they can handle in their NBA Playoffs conference semifinals matchup. Dallas took games 4 and 5 to force a game 7 showdown at Footprint Center Sunday. We expect Phoenix will ultimately advance, but our conviction regarding the 6.5 point spread is low. We feel suffiently confident about the betting total however to advocate an O/U play.


After the first round, the rule of thumb is to back the UNDER in NBA Playoffs game 7's.



This simple generalization has been good for a (statistically significant) 39% return on investment back to the 2004-05 season, and has delivered cover rates below 50% in only three years since that point.


As justification for the long-term profitability of this angle, we hypothesize that, in these win or go home situations, the imperative (for both teams) to stop the opposition's offense is heightened, resulting in reduced scoring.


The Bucks at the Celtics as well as the Mavs at the Suns fit this criteria Sunday, as both of these second round postseason matchups are tied 3-3 heading into today's action. However, we zeroed in on the latter contest, as the output from our computer simulation routines for the game in the Valley is consistent with the aforementioned historical tendency. Back u205.


Happy betting!!