Trail Blazers +8 @ Warriors

Oracle Arena, Oakland, CA

May 14, 2019, 6:00 PM

We like the Blazers to cover the spread in the Western Conference Finals opener this evening, and are betting accordingly. Supporting our thinking, we note that the Warriors have had a tough time covering the chalk at home. Also, historically, the Conference Finals have been the ideal spot to fade home teams early in the series. Finally, the defending champions have tended to fall flat against the number in the playoffs after extended breaks.

Broadly speaking, the Warriors have been poor performers against the betting line over the last couple of years playing in the comfort of their own building. Golden State finished the 2017-18 season with a 21-30-1 ATS home record (including the postseason), and followed up that showing by registering a home ATS record of 18-28-1 during the 2018-19 regular season. The Dubs are a consistent 2-4 ATS at Oracle Arena so far in these playoffs.

Relatedly, per the BetLabsSports.com database, the Conference Finals mark the sole round of the NBA playoffs where away teams have demonstrated a consistent edge versus the number in the opening two games. Since 2005, backing traveling teams (ATS) early in the last intra-conference matchups of the postseason has been good for a 19% return on investment (ROI).

Of note, conference finals game 1's have been exactly as profitable as game 2's, as away teams are 17-11 ATS from both situations.

The Warriors in particular have been, at best, unremarkable overall in home game 1's since Steve Kerr assumed the helm in 2014. Golden State is 8-9 ATS in first games of playoff series hosted at Oracle Arena.

Also, the Dubs are 0-3 ATS with home court advantage in the opening game of Conference Finals matchups during Kerr's tenure.

On the other hand, at 4-10 ATS, the Blazers have been downright atrocious versus the number in games 1 and 2 of postseason play since Damian Lillard burst onto the scene. Our inclination though is to discount Portland's history from this spot somewhat, as the Blazers have not seen the Conference Finals since 1990--Dame Money was nine years old the last time Portland's championship bid extended this deep into the playoffs. This observation suggests to us that this year's Trail Blazers team is a different animal relative to its predecessors, and so recent history might not apply.

Finally, we note that while prevailing wisdom might suggest a well-rested Warriors team is that much more dangerous, historical data does not validate this thinking. Since Kerr assumed the role of Head Coach for Golden State, the Dubs are only 5-6 ATS in the playoffs after at least three days off. Thus, we think the long layoff that resulted from Golden State finishing Houston in six, while the Denver/Portland matchup required seven games to arbitrate, could result in a bit of rust build-up for Steph and the boys.

Bottom line: The Warriors general troubles covering at home (including in postseason game 1's), the historical penchant in favor of road teams early in Conference Finals action and Golden State's track record after an idle period all tilt us toward the Blazers plus the points tonight.

Happy betting!!

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