The potential significance of Sunday's meeting between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics is not lost on us. A Cavs defeat could represent the end of an era, marking the first time in the last eight playoffs that now 35 year old LeBron James would fail to make an NBA Finals appearance. Further, a loss to the Celtics might all but doom any potential for LeBron to remain in Cleveland after this year.
As one might expect of a man known as the the King, LeBron has been pretty impressive in elimination games. To wit, just Friday night, down 3-2 in the series, James played all but two minutes of the contest and registered an otherworldly eFG% of 114.7% in route to amassing 46 points (on a mere 17 shots). James also recorded 11 rebounds and 9 assists in the 10-point home win and cover.
FiveThirtyEight's Neil Paine also marveled at James' most recent performance, noting that LeBron's effort Friday cushioned his position as the most prolific player in League history in do or die playoff scenarios. In 22 elimination games, James averaged better than 34 points per game -- roughly three points better than MJ and Wilt in similar situations.
More relevant to Sunday's action though, we examined how LBJ has fared historically in game 7's specifically. As the table below illustrates, teams featuring the King have done pretty well; 5-2 SU/ATS to be precise. Further LeBron has not lost a game 7 outright since 2006 -- back when he was a mere Prince, carrying a Cavs roster with limited talent.
Consistent with a fully matured LeBron James' uncanny abilities, per The Action Network, the bulk of dollars wagered on the ATS outcome of this contest (78%) are backing Cleveland. Given that most (53%) spread bets support Boston, larger (and presumably sharper) bettors appear to favor the Cavs cover.
The percentage of spread bets and the percentage of spread dollars have highlighted opposing teams 13 times already this post-season. Sharps have an 8-5 ATS advantage.
Bigger picture, The Action Network has examined the performance over longer terms of good teams that the public is fading in the playoffs. The findings of their study fit with the idea that recreational bettors struggle with recency bias. In the case of action to come today, the public's Boston crush might be influenced by the Celtics strong play at home in the playoffs, or the Cavs weakness on the road this post-season.
The following chart from The Action Network shows how teams with regular season SU win rates north of 50% that are backed by <45% of spread bets for their next out perform in the playoffs. Clearly, this cohort is consistently undervalued. [The Cavs are currently supported by 47% of public bets, so this rule is not active just yet.]
Separately, ESPN has found playoff experience to be predictive of forward looking post-season success. FiveThirtyEight too validates the importance of prior playoff experience to post-season performance. In fact, this outfit names the Cavs as the most playoff experienced team in the NBA (as of October 2017). As a result, Cleveland received a fat premium in FiveThirtyEight forecasts.
Conversely, three of Boston's primary players are rookies. Thus, every day of the post-season to this point represents something brand new for Terry Rozier, Jaylen Brown and Jason Tatum. And while this trio has performed admirably so far, they may well reach a point where the combination of the pressure to deliver and the brightness of the lights become unbearable; and that day may well be today.
On the other side of the wager though, we note that James' two SU game 7 losses occurred on the road (though both are more than a decade old). This observation is noteworthy as Cleveland is 3-5 SU/ATS away from Quicken Loans Arena in their 2018 playoff run.
Moreover, Cleveland will have to manage without Kevin Love Sunday (Love was ruled out of today's action after exiting game 6 following contact to the head). Love ranks 21st out of 561 rated players by ESPN's Real Plus-Minus stat, so his absence matters on both ends of the floor, generally speaking.
And from a more macro perspective, The Action Network assembled the following compilation of relevant NBA Playoffs game 7 betting trends (since 2005). Home teams and favorites boast clear historical advantages, both absolutely and versus the number.
Still in Devil's Advocate mode, FiveThirtyEight's Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization (CARMELO) framework estimates that James' value peaked last year (as measured by projected wins above replacement). Our overly simplistic examination of James historical regular season Plus-Minus rating, which we smoothed by applying a three season average, corroborates this outlook and paints a picture of, after 15 years on the job, a fading King. Per the the following chart, James reached the apex of his superpowers around the time he vacated the continental climate of 'the Land' in favor of the more tropical shores of South Beach.
The chart hints that James fought the good fight for several years after hitting peak performance, staving off significant decline through the Miami years and for a couple of tours back at home. However, there is a case to be made that Father Time has finally assumed the upper hand.
Against the grain though of these potential supports for the Celtics, LeBron's experience, leadership and ability to will himself (and his team) to win in a given game tilt us toward betting on the Cleveland cover.
For bettors reticent to dismiss these Celtics though, rather than taking Boston to win outright, consider backing the Celts to win the first and (especially the) third quarters. On average, the Celtics beat opposing teams by +1.6 points in the opening period, versus the Cavs' typical advantage of +0.3 points. When we adjust for Boston's home field advantage though, the average 1Q edge increases to about 2 points.
The average third quarter disparity is even more stark. In the period after halftime, Boston tends to outscore the competition again by +1.6 points, on average. Cleveland can generally be expected to lose the 3Q (albeit by a nominal margin). And while Cleveland does play better in the third when traveling, Boston's third quarter improvement at TD Garden compared to their whole-season average 3Q margin is almost twice the gain the Cavs experience on the road.
Bottom line: Our objective analysis says the King is still the King -- until he is not; and so far, we have no reason to believe he is not. So while the current playoff run has been anything but fairy tale for Cleveland, they have won when they needed to -- in the face of adversity from Indiana first, and now Boston. The Cavs have an ultimate ace-in-the-hole though in LeBron James; not a bad card to play, even if, after a decade-and-a-half of shuffling, the corners are beginning to dog-ear. We are backing the experienced team featuring today's superstar, over the young up-and-comers with plenty of potential. But, to be clear, our betting on the Cavaliers is not to say that we expect the Celtics to roll over. Look for a fight, with Boston giving better than they receive in the first and third quarters, but ultimately succumbing to LeBron James' singular greatness.
Happy betting!!