UFC 192 Cormier Vs. Gustaffson
Toyota Center, Houston, TX
October 3, 2015, 9pm CDT
Current Line [5Dimes]:
Ryan Bader +125
Rashad Evans -230
o/u 2.5
"Suga" Rashad Evans returns to the octagon tonight after a 23-month layoff. The former light heavyweight champion will face Ryan Bader on the UFC 192 undercard at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. The bout is tentatively scheduled for 10:00pm CDT.
In Evans' last outing, he earned a first-round TKO over a then-36 year old Chael Sonnen. However, Sonnen was probably washed up at that point. In the 16 month span leading up to his meeting with Evans, Sonnen had lost two of his last three contests by TKO. The boisterous fighter's singular win during this interval came against a past-his-prime "Shogun" Rua (Rua is 2-2 since facing Sonnen). Further, following the fight, during the buildup for UFC 172, it was divulged that Sonnen had failed two random drug tests. This development ultimately led to the fighter retiring from competition.
Also of concern for Evans backers, Suga is 36 years of age and has been a professional since 2004. As research finds that fighters tend to start to decline around the 9th year of their career, it should come as no surprise that 2 of Evans' 3 career defeats have come since he celebrated his 8th aniversary as a pro (Evans is 2-2 in his last four out).
Meanwhile, Bader (age 32) is on a four fight win streak, incuding, most recently, a decision win over "Mr. Wonderful" Phil Davis. The 8th year pro looks to be somewhere around the height of his super powers.
Given the signs of slippage we observe in Evans' perfromance combined with his almost two-year layoff, we consider Bader a live dog from this spot. However, we find o2.5 rounds to be more compelling (i.e. a higher probability pay day) vs. siding with Bader to win. Over Bader's career, he has ended ten of his 23 total fights before the final bell sounded (6 by KO, 4 by submission), with his last win by stoppage coming six fights ago (January 2013) against journeyman Vladimir Matyushenko.
Evans has forced the referee to intervene on his opponents behalf in nine instances over his 23 fight career (7 KOs, 2 submissions). Prior to finishing the un-game Chael Sonnen in 2013 though, Rashad had not scored a stoppage since 2011.
We see no reason to anticipate that either fighter tonight will go beyond themselves. As such, we expect a decision is the most likely resolution for this evening's action. We are inclined to favor Bader (+125) over Evans, however, we are content to play o2.5 (-230).
Happy betting!!