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Betting the Bubble: Our Track Record Betting the NBA Restart

Updated: Oct 8, 2020

As of October 8, 2020:

Bubble Record: 40-37 (52%), +0% ROI

Playoffs Record: 33-25-1 (57%), 10% ROI

Last 10 Record: 8-2 (80%), 51% ROI

October 8, 2020

We have maintained our 57% cover rate for NBA Playoffs action since out last update, recording a 12-9-1 record over about the last month. With only one to three games left on the season, we expect to play a couple of tendencies that we hope will give us a strong finish. Follow @WizeOwlSports to stay in the know!

The Excel spreadsheet (below) containing detail for each published pick since the NBA reboot has been updated.

Happy betting!!

September 11, 2020

We started the NBA reboot on an atrocious 7-12 streak with our ATS and O/U picks. We were aware of this potential, given numerous deviations from the League's typical late-season proceedings, which included an extended break that disrupted rhythms before play finally commenced again in July, the initial absolute cutoff of direct contact with friends and family (though players' inner circles have been allowed into the bubble more recently), the distraction born of concerns among the players (who are mostly Black) regarding social injustice on display around this nation, the expected dramatic diminution (or nullification) of home court advantage and the lack of travel. However, we hoped that we could adjust our framework to accommodate the new conditions.

For instance, given the multi-month layoff, we viewed the restart as akin to the start of a new season. Accordingly, history-based systems we invoked had to have a track record of solid performance early in the basketball year.

Then, after allowing for a few tune-up games, we shifted our gaze to systems that have fared particularly well at the tail end of the season, as we surmised that, by this point, teams were adequately acclimated and appropriately fixated on a post-season run.

As reflected especially in the early performance numbers, there were clearly some miscalibrations.

And the context we offer herein does not intend to rationalize a terrible showing, but, it is worth noting that the current basketball environment is truly unprecedented, in ways that are different than in sports such as baseball or football (where there is no bubble of isolation).

On the bright side though, our post-season picks have proven profitable. As of September 11, we are 21-16 (57%) betting the NBA Playoffs, good for an 11% ROI. The recent reversion might be indicative of a normalization that harkens of more stable (positive) results for the remainder of the playoffs, perhaps as players resort to typical tendencies after having gone through a period of initial adjustment.

Whatever the short-term outcome though, we will continue to attempt to discern value, based on big-picture, historical market tendencies and informed by the work of our roster of computer simulation routines.

The attached spreadsheet details all of the plays we have published via Twitter since the season resumed. The performance and profitability figures assume we risk one unit per wager. In instances where we do not publish odds, we grade wagers based on the standard vigorish of -110.

Happy betting!!

NBA Bubble Record
Download XLSX • 5.63MB

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