2021 NBA Opening Day: Backing the Better Teams ATS
Betting on Giannis' and LeBron's Season Debut: Bucks -1 and Lakers -3.5
In certain situations, we have observed a tendency for the betting public to overweight last year's performance versus the number when handicapping NBA game 1's.
Specifically, road teams with season-ago ATS win rates north of 50% tend to give up covers in season openers.
This observation favors both the Lakers and Bucks ATS Tuesday. Separately, independent computer simulation routines likewise endorse the Bucks cover. FiveThirtyEight gives the defending champions a 5.5 point edge over Brooklyn sans Kyrie Irving. Oddsshark likewise makes the Bucks better than the Nets today, by essentially the same margin.
On the other hand, ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) gives the Nets a two-point edge.
Worth noting, history is at odds with these forward looking systems for Golden State's showdown with the Los Angeles Lakers. BPI suggests the Warriors are modestly better than the Lakers today, while FiveThirtyEight suggests L.A. is likely to come up just shy of the cover. Similarly, OddsShark likewise forecasts a straight up win for the home team, but not the cover.