Toronto Raptors -2 @ 76ers
It has proven consistently profitable to bet against teams taking points in their own building in the latter games of an NBA postseason series. This strategy has been good for a staggering 40% return on investment (ROI) since 2005, and points to a home cover for Toronto Thursday.
Of note, this system is an even more profitable 17-4 ATS in contests featuring Eastern Conference teams.
Separately, sharp (as well as square) bettors are lining up behind the Raptors. At present, 64% of spread bets tracked by The Action Network are down on the home team. However, a greater 67% of dollars wagered ATS back the Raptors. As we have echoed consistently in recent days and weeks, siding with the team supported by a percentage of dollars bet that exceeds the percentage share of total bets has generated strong profits since 2016.
Tailing the sharpest bettors per this measure is 37-23 ATS this postseason, for a 62% cover rate and a 21% ROI.
Through a different lens, fundamentally, the Sixers fate seems to rest primarily on the shoulders of one superstar Center, Joel Embiid. To illustrate Embiid's importance relative to other heralded Sixers, Ben Simmons and Jimmy Butler, consider the message from ESPN's Real Plus Minus (RPM) statistic, a gauge of a player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, after accounting for teammates, opponents and other factors.
RPM estimates Embiid's value last year to be 5.49 points per 100 offensive and defensive possesssions. Comparatively, Ben Simmons' RPM is 1.88 points/100 possessions, about a third of Embiid's worth (and good for the 16th ranking among qualified Point Guards). And while Butler boasts an RPM of 4.09, the second-best score among qualified Shooting Guards, his effectiveness is still only three-quarters of Embiid's, per this statistic.
Toronto though made a critical adjustment in an effort to contain Philly's elite big man after Embiid's standout game three performance, which featured 33 points on 18 shots, a 75% connect rate from downtown, the conversion of 12 out 13 foul shots, 10 boards, 5 blocks, 3 dimes and a partridge in a pear tree. Following the Sixers 21 point blowout win a week ago, Coach Nick Nurse relieved Serge Ibaka of the responsibility for guarding "The Process", giving the assignment to the beefier Marc Gasol instead.
This move has paid off in spades, as Embiid has exhibited a fraction of the productivity facing the big Spaniard that he did against Ibaka, who, incidentally, likewise shares Spanish heritage.
Gasol's defensive magic does not appear to be a fluke eorher. The 11th year Center has demonstrated a pretty consistent ability to stifle Embiid. FiveThirtyEight notes that Gasol was tasked with checking Embiid in 379 possessions, spanning nine games over the last two seasons. Joel delivered worse offensive productivity than against any other defender he faced at least 100 times.
This historical account also negates any conversation about injury and/or illness playing a meaningful role in Joel's aggregate performance against Gasol.
Bottom line: Big picture historical trends suggest the present is a tough spot from which to expect Philly to extend their season. Further, the insertion of Gasol into the Raptors lineup when Embiid is on the floor looks like check and mate. As such, we are comfortable laying the short chalk and taking Toronto to collect the cover and finish off the Sixers Thursday.
Happy betting!!