Golden St Warriors @ Houston Rockets -1
Toyota Center, Houston, TX
May 6, 2019, 6:30 PM PDT
We called for the Rockets to rally in game 3 of their NBA Western Conference Semifinals matchup with the Warriors, and Houston did in fact secure the home cover Saturday. We are going back to the well Monday and betting Houston covers the modest chalk and knots the series at two games apiece.
Consistent with the idea of the home cover Monday, we note that fading the public when the masses are on playoff underdogs has been a profitable strategy, delivering an 18% ROI since 2005 and turning a profit in all but two of the last fourteen completed NBA post-seasons.
This approach is 3-1 ATS so far this season.
(Houston has garnered the support of only 30% of spread bets as of the time of this writing.)
Also in the Rockets' favor Monday, sharp bettors seem to be positioning for a Houston cover. While the Warriors enjoy the backing of 67% of ATS wagers tracked by The Action Network, a smaller percentage of dollars bet against the spread have flowed Golden State's way, as of the time of this writing.
This difference has been a great guide to wagering the NBA playoffs. Bettors playing the sharp money vs. square money divide have reaped a 19% ROI so far this post-season, and a 12% return on investment since 2016 (flows data is not available prior to 2016).