Golden St Warriors @ Houston Rockets
Toyota Center, Houston, TX
May 4, 2019, 5:30 PM PDT
We expect the Rockets to bounce back Saturday, after losing games 1 and 2 of the NBA Western Conference semifinals on the road to the defending champion, Golden State Warriors. Accordingly, we are betting on Houston to cover the first half and full game chalk.
A couple of historically profitable systems validate our thinking. First, we note that teams off consecutive playoff losses have been solid bets against the first half line in game 3.
Since 2005, teams, like Houston, have delivered a 24% return on investment (ROI) from this position.
Additionally, the system of tailing sharp bettors has been good for a 19% ROI so far this post-season, and a 12% return on investment since 2016 (flows data is not available prior to 2016).
As of the time of this writing, bets tracked by The Action Network suggest that while half of all spread wagers are down on the champs, 63% of dollars bet against the spread are backing Houston. This disparity suggests bigger (presumably, better informed) bets are siding with the Rockets this afternoon.
Further, that the line has widened from the opening level of Houston -3 to the present -3.5 is likewise consistent with the idea that the sharper money is with the Rockets.
Happy betting!!