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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

April 23 NBA Playoff Action: A Trend for Teams from the East Facing Elimination

Orlando +7 1H @ Philadelphia

Brooklyn +5 1H @ Toronto

Both the Magic and Nets find themselves staring at the edge of their seasons Tuesday, after each dropping three in a row in their opening round match-ups for these NBA playoffs. We expect both teams to muster spirited efforts this afternoon, and are backing both to come away with the cover versus the pre-intermission betting lines...(second half outcomes are more questionable, in our estimation).

Consistent with our bias in favor of the road dogs to beat the first half number, per data from BetLabsSports, from the fourth game of the NBA playoffs through the end of the post-season proceedings, Eastern Conference dogs on three-game losing streaks have been solid bets versus the first half number. Squads in this spot have been good for an unreal 67% % return on investment since 2005, but the system's limited sample size raises the question of whether the observed white-hot streak is due merely to chance.

We find comfort though from the observation that this approach is 2-0 ATS out the gate this season.

Also consistent with the idea that these overmatched teams can stay competitive in the first half, back to 2007, the Nets have been the most profitable team in the League during the regular season against the 1H spread when taking points on the road from an Eastern Conference team after dropping three straight. Brooklyn is 18-6 ATS from this position.

Of particular interest, at 10-5-2 ATS since 2006, the Magic are the third most profitable team in the NBA from this situation.

Happy betting!!

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