Apr 7 NBA Action: Atlanta Hawks @ Milwaukee Bucks
Atlanta +10.5 @ Milwaukee
Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
April 7, 219, 4:00 PM PDT
We like the Hawks + the 10.5 at the mighty Bucks this afternoon. This pick is supported by the observation that, late in the NBA season, road teams tend to cover just after an especially big loss.
We suspect the inspired play that has been the historical norm from this spot results from a combination of professional pride and the betting public overreacting to a particularly bad night.
Whatever the reason though, the trend is undeniable. Per data from BetLabsSports, backing away teams playing games 72-82 of the regular NBA season after losing their previous contest by 15 or more has delivered a 14% return on investment (ROI) since 2005.
When the away team off an embarrassing performance faces teams with win rates of at least 55% in their next campaign, long-term ROI increases to18%.