Apr 2 NBA Action: Houston Rockets @ Sacramento Kings
Houston -5 @ Sacramento
Golden 1 Center, Sacramento
April 2, 2019, 7:00 PM PDT
Our tried and true 'Fade home dogs, late' NBA system improved to 22-14 ATS season-to-date Monday, after collecting ATS wins on the Bucks at the Nets and Blazers at the Timberwolves (and in spite of the Sixers loss at Dallas).
In contrast to yesterday's full NBA calendar, where we found as much action as we could handle, Tuesday's schedule features a slim four contests. At present, only one of the four is of particular interest to us: the Rockets -5 at the Kings...by now our readers know exactly what to do.
In addition to the signal from profitable our history-based system, we also note that the Rockets have improved significantly on the road since around the mid- season mark (from a betting progressive, that is).
Houston is 5-4-1 ATS in their last ten away from their Toyota Center. The Rockets beat the number by an average of better than 3.5 points during this span. In the ten away games before this stretch, the Rockets were 3-7 ATS. This stint included a five game string of consecutive road losses (ATS).
Also supporting our pick, while the Beard and the boys have come on on the road of late, Sacramento's against the spread play at Golden 1 Center appears to have plateaued. By early February, the Kings had covered their prior ten home games by roughly 6.5 points per contest. This margin has since shrank to less than a bucket at present, giving the Rockets about a 1.5 point edge in recent play in the current situations.
Directionally, the inflection evident on the chart is inline with historical norms, as good teams tend to cover on the road late in the year, while poorer teams tend to struggle at home. Back the Rockets to cover tonight.