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April Fool's NBA Action: Fade Home Dogs, Late

Milwaukee -2 @ Brooklyn

Portland -3 @ Minnesota

Philadelphia -7.5 @ Dallas

Today's installment of "Fade home dogs, late" endorses three road teams ATS with straight-up win rates ranging from 63-74% (the Bucks, Blazers and Sixers). These contenders will match-up against the Nets, Timberwolves and Mavericks, who have, cumulatively, won 45% of games played (Brooklyn is the only winning team of this cohort, albeit at 39-38, the Nets just barely qualify for this distinction).

By now, we have belabored the historical profitability of fading home dogs late in the NBA season, ad nauseum (see here, here and here for examples). This system has been good for a 10% return on investment (ROI) long-term, and 23%(!) so far this year, on a record of 22-13 ATS.

Bucks at Nets

Bolstering our confidence in Milwaukee's ability to cover the chalk Monday, we note that another system on our radar also endorses the Bucks for the ATS cover. Road favorites off unexpected losses have been dynamite during the last leg of the NBA regular season. Getting down on teams (ATS) that lost their last game as the favorite, and that are favored again on the road has been good for a 23% ROI since 2005. 

The Bucks lost to the Hawks in OT Sunday, triggering this secondary signal on the cover.

Trail Blazers at Timberwolves

Consistent with Portland's bid for the win and cover today, we note that the Blazers have been about two points better versus the spread on the road recently than the Wolves have been at home. Through 37 away games, Dame Lillard and the crew beat the  number by an average of almost 5.5 points in their last ten away from Moda Center. The Trail Blazers are 7-3 ATS over this span.

On the other hand, while Minnesota has been solid of late in their own building, their +3.4 point cover margin over their last ten home games pales in comparison (the Wolves are  6-4 ATS in their last ten games at Target Center).

76ers at Mavericks

Since about the midpoint of the season, the 76ers have been consistently better ATS on the road than the Mavs have been at home. Dallas has failed to cover their last ten at American Airlines Center by about 4.5 points per game, on average, while Philly has been more game when traveling, missing the number by about a half-point, on average, in their last ten road games. This observation implies an edge of about 3.5 points versus the number in recent play for the squad from the City of Brotherly Love.

Also evident from the chart, Dallas' ATS performance at home has declined dramatically as the season has progressed. While the magnitude of the Mavs' skid appears extreme, the directional move is no anomaly. Teams with less than 40% win rates tend to struggle increasingly versus the betting line in home games as the year wears on. Historically, fading bad teams at home actually cost bettors in the first half of the season. This strategy turns profitable though somewhere in the third quarter of the professional basketball year, with great gains typically accruing during the tail end of the season. 

Happy betting!!

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