Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 @ Atlanta Hawks
State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
March 31, 2019, 9:30 AM PDT
We indicated (yet again) yesterday a preference for road favs late in the NBA season, as home dogs have had a tough time covering the spread down the stretch. In fact, we picked up two units Saturday, backing the Heat and Raptors from this spot. We are going back to the well again today, as the Milwaukee Bucks are favored over the Atlanta Hawks.
We have indicated a reticence to fade the Hawks recently though, as Atlanta's ATS performance at home of late parallels their best basketball of the year. At about the halfway point of the season, the Hawks were beating the number by about an average of +5 per game at home. After their most recent 5-2 ATS run at State Farm Arena, which featured an average coverage margin of +4 points, the Hawks got back to covering with about five points to spare, on average--before receiving a smack-down at the hands of the Blazers Friday, that is.
Adding to our inhibitions, the Bucks' play on the road has taken a turn for the worse, from a betting perspective. Milwaukee's average 10-game cover margin has dropped from a peak near +6 points per game into negative territory currently. Recent bad (SU) losses to the Cavs and Suns have not helped.
However, as is evident on the chart, the Hawks performance at home has been decidedly more volatile than has the Bucks showing on the road. Thus, we perceive ample latitude for Atlanta to underperform their recently established norm.
Further, the Bucks are off a four-game home stand in which they did not sustain a single ATS loss, so perhaps Milwaukee has found its mojo. Also of note, the Hawks just took a 20 point thumping from Portland two days ago, which could mark the end of their period of exceptionalism.
Of significance, Giannis has been ruled out of today's action. Milwaukee is 4-3 ATS this season without the Greek Freak. We got down on Milwaukee at -5.5, with Antetokounmpo still listed as questionable, and while we are not super excited about an impaired Bucks team facing a much improved Hawks squad versus the number, we trust our discipline and are backing the Bucks cover.
Happy betting!!