Mar 25 NBA Action: Philadelphia 76ers @ Orlando Magic
Photo: Mitchell Leff, Getty Images
Philadelphia 76ers -2 @ Orlando Magic
Amway Center, Orlando, Florida
March 25, 2019, 4:00PM PDT
As 7.5 point underdogs, the Atlanta Hawks snapped the Sixers' six-game win streak Saturday--in pretty dramatic fashion, we might add. By about halfway through the second quarter, Atlanta had assumed control of this game. In fact, the Hawks established a 12-point lead by later in the third. However, Philly came flurrying back, and pushed ahead by a bucket with only few minutes left to play. Atlanta refused to fold though, and by the last few ticks the game was tied at 127...and then the Hawks' burgeoning star guard, Trae Young, did this:
We expect Saturday's heart-breaking defeat sets the stage for a solid bounce-back game today, as, historically, road favs have been profitable bets following unexpected losses. Since 2005, teams laying chalk on the road have covered at about a 54% clip (on a record of 540-467-10 ATS) after dropping a game they were favored to win. Backing teams, like the Sixers today, to beat the number from this spot has been good for a 5% return on investment.
This system is 38-28-1 ATS this season, for a 58% cover rate and a 12% ROI.
Also significant to today's action, this approach is a ridiculous 71-42-1 ATS (for a 63% cover rate and 23% ROI) over the long-term during the back stretch of the regular NBA season (i.e. games 72-82).