John Glaser-USA TODAY Sports
San Antonio @ Houston -6
Toyota Center, Houston, TX
March 22, 2019, 5:00PM PDT
One BetLabsSports-powered NBA system on our dashboard triggered a play on the Rockets versus San Antonio Friday. This approach favors the home team when divisional rivals both with win rates of at least 55% collide, and has been good for a 3% return on investment (ROI) since 2005. Additionally, our computer simulation work calls for Houston to handle San Antonio by a 6.5-8 point margin.
Importantly, the BetLabs system's profitability has proven especially pronounced later in the season, as indicated by the double digit ROI during about the last quarter of the season.
We hypothesize that later in the year, as the playoff picture begins to crystalize, competitive intensity increases among teams attempting to solidify and/or improve their post-season standing. During this period of increased focus and effort among the upper echelon, disparities across top-tier teams decrease and home court becomes a more significant differentiator.
Good teams from the same division might be especially susceptible to this phenomenon given the increased familiarity that likely coincides with more frequent meetings.
But whatever the reason, the tail end of the regular season (i.e. the last 11 games) have been fertile ground for backing good teams to cover at home against good divisional rivals. Bettors adhering to this strategy covered at a 60% clip since 2005.
This trend led us to the cashier's window after the Sixers vs. the Celtics Wednesday, and now favors the Rockets this afternoon as host to the neighboring Spurs. Coupled with the signals from our computer simulation work, we find this indication compelling enough for us to back the home cover.
Happy betting!!