Pistons -4.5 @ Cavaliers
Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland
March 18, 2019, 4:00PM PDT
We are fading one of the hottest teams in the NBA over the last month, the Cleveland Cavaliers (versus the Detroit Pistons). Fortunately, this circumstance means we are also getting down on one of the hottest teams in the NBA. As support for our position, we point to indications for the Pistons cover from our computer simulation work, as well as a profitable long-term, big picture betting system.
The Cavs are 6-8 SU over about the last five weeks. While not at all impressive in absolute terms, Cleveland's recent 43% win rate represents better than double their 20% season-to-date success rate prior to the start of the recent run. The Cavs are also 8-4 ATS over the last month. Thus, there is a case to be made that Cleveland got some wind beneath its wings for the last leg of the season.
We are skeptical. Fueling our bias today against the scorching Cavaliers, our simulation routines call for a double-digit win for the away team this afternoon, implying a considerable value margin for inclined Pistons backers. Supplanting this signal, we have observed that bad home teams taking points from divisional foes over the last third of the regular season tend to struggle versus the number. Betting against teams in this situation has delivered a 7% ROI since 2005, and is 5-3 ATS this year.
We also note that, like Cleveland, Detroit too is playing exceptional basketball of late, as indicated by the Pistons' 9-4 ATS tally over the last month. In distinction to the Cavs' recent performance though, Detroit is actually winning, collecting W's in ten of their last 13 out, and improving their likely playoff seeding in the process.
We think post-season ambitions inspire competitiveness late in the season for teams with a shot at the NBA playoffs, while the construct of the NBA draft system disincentivizes bad teams from winning too much. We see these two factors at play today for the match-up between a team with a foot in the playoff door and the third-worst team in the League. We are siding with the squad with the motivation to win.
The betting line opened at Detroit -6.5 at most shops, with the Cavs' Kevin Love listed as questionable. It has since been determined that Blake Griffin will not suit up for the Pistons. The spread contracted to -4.5 on this news, before sharp action on the road team pressured the number back up to -5. Griffin's absence does not influence our selection. And as of the time of this writing, Love is still listed as questionable.
Happy betting!!