Atlanta Hawks +10.5 @ Boston Celtics
TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
March 16, 2019, 9:30AM PDT
The combination of strong indications from our computer simulation work plus a big-picture historical betting trends system compels us to favor the road dogs to cover at the Garden this morning. Accordingly, we are happy to take the Hawks +10.5.
The multiple, independent computer simulation routines we license suggest this contest could be much tighter than bookies anticipate. Our work sees a mere couple of buckets separating Boston and Atlanta when the final buzzer sounds Saturday, so +10.5 looks to be a bargain.
Additionally, we have observed that good teams on a good run, playing at home have struggled versus the number in conference play facing bad teams on a win streak.
In intra-conference action, teams with a win rate of at least 60%, that collected victories in four of their last five, and that are hosting teams on a win streak that won 40% or less of their total games played have had difficulty beating the number since 2005. Betting against such situations has delivered a 12% ROI long-term, and is 6-3 ATS so far this year.
This system is 20-13 ATS, for an 18% ROI, considering only games fitting these criteria that were played during the last quarter of the NBA season.
Happy betting!!