Golden State @ Oklahoma City -1.5
Indiana +7 @ Denver
As 11.5 point home favorites Thursday, the Nuggets barely staved off the Mavericks, eking out the win by the slimmest possible margin. Similarly, the Warriors bested the Rockets by a bucket in Houston Wednesday, in a contest that was back-and-forth the whole way. These outcomes motivate us to fade Golden State and Denver Staurday.
One of our BetLabs-powered NBA systems fades good teams off narrow wins, as squads with 65% win rates or better have struggled historically ATS (in non-divisional play) after winning their previous game by four or less. The graphic below shows profitability to this strategy considering only games 55-82 (the last third) of each season since 2005.
In accordance with this approach, we are backing the Pacers as road dogs and the Thunder as home favs.
Of note, our computer simulation work also strongly endorses the Thunder cover.
Happy betting!!