Utah Jazz -7/7.5 @ Phoenix Suns
Talking Stick Resort Arena, Phoenix, AZ
March 13, 2019, 7:30PM PDT
The Suns beat the defending champion Golden State Warriors in Oakland, CA Sunday. The implied probability of such a feat was as low as 6.5%, per Las Vegas odds, suggesting this event is probably going to stand as the (regular season) NBA upset of the year.
But we do not think the 16-52 Suns are the new kings of professional basketball. Conversely, our inclination is to sell Phoenix (relatively) high after what we guess will constitute the single best achievement of their season.
Supporting the notion that Phoenix is over-valued on the heels of the marquee win of their year, consider the spreads shown below for each case where the Jazz faced one of the five worst teams in the NBA this season, each with fewer than 20 wins so far this year. The betting line in these contests ranged between -9.5 and -16, and the median was -12. In all cases, the spread was materially wider than the present line for Jazz at Suns Wednesday.
We also note that Utah has not demonstrated a tendency to play down to the level of weaker opposition. The Jazz are a proficient 3-1-1 ATS against the worst teams in the League.
One history-based system on our radar, predicated on fading bad teams at home off a win, corroborates the view that Phoenix is unlikely to cover versus Utah Wednesday. The refined version of the strategy recommends betting against home teams with aggregate win rates of 30% or less that are also coming off a victory. Fading such situations has delivered a 9% return on investment (ROI) since 2005, on a record of 314-250-8 ATS.
Further, when the bad team at home after a successful out is receiving points, taking the other side has been even more profitable, good for a 12% ROI since 2005.
This strategy has fared exceptionally well during the last quarter of the NBA year too, as reflected in the record of 72-32-3 ATS (34% ROI) in the last 21 games of each season since 2005.
Happy betting!!