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Mar 12 NBA Action: Milwaukee Bucks @ New Orleans Pelicans

Photo: Chris Graythen, Getty Images


Milwaukee -10 @ New Orleans

Smoothie King Center, New Orleans

March 12, 2019, 5:00PM PDT

Back to 2012, the Pelicans have covered ten of the 14 head-to-head meetings with the Bucks, including a 4-2 ATS run facing Milwaukee at Smoothie King Center. This year though, the statistical difference between these teams is greater than has been the case over this span, giving us confidence in Milwaukee's ability to pull meaningfully away this time out. Also, history hints that the present is a good spot for the Bucks to secure the road cover. As such, we are laying the ten and siding with Milwaukee versus the number.

Per Cleaning The Glass, Milwaukee ranks second in the League on offense and defense, by points per 100 possessions. Further, the difference between the Bucks' points scored and points allowed is better than any other NBA team.

Conversely, while Anthony Davis' Pelicans boast a top-ten offense by points per 100 possessions, New Orleans ranks 22nd on defense, giving up almost two points more per 100 possessions than the average/median team. Thus the double-digit spread for this match-up appears justified.

Consistent with the idea of the road win ATS, we note that the Bucks are the best bet in professional basketball this year, generally speaking. Further, the unexpexted defeat at the Spurs' hands Sunday likewise bodes well for the idea of a Milwaukee cover, as, for one, Milwaukee is 13-3 ATS this season off a loss.

More broadly, we observe evidence that siding with road teams that made last year's playoffs, that are on one-game SU and ATS losing streaks and that are cast in the role of favorite for at least the second straight game has been a solidly profitable. Teams have covered at a 55% clip from this spot since 2005, for an 8% ROI. This strategy is 15-9 ATS so far this year.

Of interest, this set of criteria has delivered even greater profitability during the last quarter of the regular season, notching a record of 44-30-1 ATS (60%) since 2005 in games 62-82.

Other team-level trends too fit with the idea of the ATS win for the away team: 

  • Milwaukee is 33-23-3 ATS when expected to win,

  • The Bucks are 11-8 ATS as a double-digit favorite,

  • Milwaukee is 20-13 2 ATS on the road,

  • The Bucks are 27-14 ATS after a night off,

Happy betting!!

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