Mar 6 NBA Action: NY Knicks @ Phoenix Suns
Photo: Nathaniel S. Butler NBAE/Getty Images
NY Knicks +4 @ Phoenix Suns
Talking Stick Resort Arena
Mar 6, 2018, 7:30 PM PST
Our computer simulation work gives the road team the slightest straight up edge this evening's contest between the Knicks and Suns. As such, we find the current +3.5/4 spread available at many shops to be pretty friendly; we'll bite.
In addition to the favorable computer simulation-based indications in the Knicks' favor, tonight's match-up offers yet another opportunity to fade a very bad team at home Amazingly, Phoenix knocked off Giannis and the Milwaukee Bucks from the position of 13 point home underdogs Monday.
As indicated previously, our thesis is that such events stir up excessive excitement among public bettors, unduly increasing expectations for struggling teams that probably just got lucky. Our expectation is that performance is likely to pretty immediately revert back to the teams' below average norm
We noted in our March 1 write-up that home teams with season-to-date win rates no better than 40%, off a straight up wins have been profitable fades historically, delivering a 53% cover rate since 2005. We also observed that the profitability of this system improved significantly during the last third of the season, amassing a 61% cover rate over this same span (both of the positions discussed in Friday's piece collected).
In a subsequent note that argued in favor of Detroit covering against Cleveland following the Cavs' success against the Knicks, we observed that the worse the record for the low-quality home team off a win, the more profitable the fade, historically (this play also cashed in). The Suns' sub-22% aggregate win rate suggests Phoenix is among the most profitable cohort to bet against from this spot.
These very Suns killed this strategy's perfect streak since its debut. Phoenix beat Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks by nine on their home floor Monday, from the position of 13 point underdogs, no less. We do not expect lightning to strike twice in the same place. We are taking the Knicks and the points.