Mar 6 NBA Action: Boston Celtics @ Sacramento Kings
Boston PICK @ Sacramento
Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
March 6, 2019, 7:00PM PST
We forecast the Celtics cover at Golden State Tuesday evening. We did not, however, anticipate the 33 point wire to wire thrashing Boston would hang on the defending champs.
History says the Celtics' momentum is likely to carry into Wednesday's action in Sacramento. Accordingly, we are backing the Celtics to win/cover at the Kings.
Per data from BetLabsSports, since 2005 teams with winning records have covered at a 55% rate, for an 8% return on investment (ROI), playing on the road after 30+ point victories.
The return from this strategy is consistent when we examine only games unfolding during the last third of each season.
Further, quality road teams off big wins are even more likely to cover in the second game of a back-to-back sequence. This cohort is 30-21 ATS overall since 2005 (15% ROI) and 15-8 ATS (28% ROI) in the latter third of the season.