Houston +3.5 @ Toronto
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Canada
March 5, 2019, 5:00 PM PST
Our simulation work offers a glowing endorsement of Houston to collect the road cover this evening. In fact, our computer routines expect the Rockets to not only beat the number, but to win a close contest outright. We also observe supplemental evidence in favor of the road team ATS, in the form of big-picture betting trends. As such we are comfortable taking the few points and siding with Houston to cover.
The Raptors sit atop the Atlantic Division with a 46-18 record, and are #2 in the Eastern Conference. Similarly, at 38-25 SU, the Rockets are #1 in the Southwest Division, and are one game behind the Blazers and Thunder for the tie for #3 in the West. Boston and Toronto have not faced each other in almost exactly a year.
Historically, when high-quality, but relatively unfamiliar teams clash, bettors have been paid to take the points. Specifically, in contests featuring teams from opposing conferences, each with a win rate greater than 60%, the underdog is 295-262-8 ATS (53%)...profitable, but nothing to write home about.
We note though that when the team receiving points won its previous outing, the record for this system jumps to 211-172-4 ATS (55%)--Houston is presently riding a five-game SU win streak.
The strategy fares even better late in the season, as indicated by the 49-33-2 ATS (59%) record in games 56-82 of each season since 2005.
Additionally, when the quality underdog won its previous game, but the quality favorite is coming off a loss, the rewards to taking the points in non-conference play have been even greater (57-40-2 ATS, 59% cover rate, 15% ROI).
The profitability of this modified approach doubled to roughly to a 31% ROI when considering only games played during the last third of each season.
Generally speaking, we believe wagers of the larger, sharper variety are also getting down on the Rockets Tuesday. The betting line for this contest opened at Toronto -4.5. And, as of the time of this writing, the Raptors enjoy the support of 52% of spread wagers by volume, and a whopping 80% of dollars wagered ATS. Despite this overwhelming preference among the betting public for the home team though, the line was down to 3.5 this morning (when we jumped on), and has contracted even more to 3 currently.
Happy betting!!