Mar 4 NBA Action: Milwaukee Bucks @ Phoenix Suns
Milwaukee -12.5 @ Phoenix
Talking Stick Resort Arena
March 4, 2019, 6:00 PM PST
The Suns are coming off a 9 point home win Saturday, as 6.5 point underdogs to the Lakers. Of note, this upset effectively killed LeBron and company's chance of making a post-season appearance. But of more immediate interest, the Suns' recent good fortune triggers one of our favorite betting systems of late.
Since last last week we've been riding a system of fading bad teams (against-the-spread) at home after a win. The system is 4-0 ATS since its introduction, following the Hawks cover at Chicago Sunday.
We reported in Friday's note that when a bad team off a win is slated as the home dog in their next game, betting the opposite side to cover is 113-81-5 ATS (58%) since 2005...this record has since improved to 115-81-5 ATS (59%)--the Bucks are laying 12.5 to the Suns as of the time of this writing.
Further, we have noted repeatedly in recent days that the worst of the worst teams, such as dead-last ranked Phoenix, have been particularly vulnerable to the home loss ATS following a straight-up victory. Fading teams with win rates of 20-29% at home after a win has delivered close to a 10% long run ROI.
Also worth reiterating, betting against bad home teams after a win has proven quite effective, historically, during the latter third of the NBA season. This system is 145-93-2 ATS (61%) counting only games 56-82 of each regular NBA season since 2005.
Team level trends are similarly supportive of Milwaukee's bid for the big win in Phoenix this evening. The Bucks' 37-23-3 overall ATS record qualifies the deer for NBA's best bet honors through 63 games.
Further, the Bucks are no stranger to laying chalk on the road this year, and are a smart 15-9-2 ATS from this spot.
Milwaukee is also 5-1 ATS in their last half dozen in Phoenix, including 4-0 in the last four.
The worst we can say about the Bucks is that they are only 9-7 ATS this season as double-digit favorites.
Counter to the Milwaukee's proficiency ATS, Phoenix is nearly as bad versus the number as they are straight up.