Photo: Karl Mondon/Bay Area News Group
Golden State @ Philadelphia +5
Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
March 2, 2019, 5:30 PM PST
The Warriors have dropped two in a row for the sixth time this season. Golden State is also 2-4 SU in their last half dozen out. Our computer simulation work expects the Dubs to struggle yet again Saturday afternoon at Philly. Accordingly, we are taking the points and backing the home win versus the number today.
Fitting with the signal from our sim work, we also observe an indication in favor the home team from a history-based system fueled by data from BetLabsSports.com. It has been solidly profitable historically to fade good teams on the road after losing their last two out. This strategy has been good for an 8% return on investment (ROI) since 2005 and a 56% cover rate.
Further, when the good but skidding road team faces another good team, the profitability of this system nearly triples, delivering a 24% ROI on an ATS record of 54-31-3 (64%).
Of particular relevance, the rewards that accrue to this strategy remain pretty constant when we consider only games taking place during the last third of the regular NBA season.
From a team-level perspective, recent trends too tilt the direction of the home cover. The Sixers have dominated the Warriors against-the-spread in head-to-head action over the last four years. Philadelphia is 7-1 ATS facing Golden State since February 2015, including a 4-0 stretch versus the number at Wells Fargo Center.
Additionally, we note that the Warriors are 25-36-1 ATS overall this season. The defending champs are also 12-15 ATS when favored on the road and 6-12 ATS following a losing effort.