Mar 2 NBA Action: Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Detroit Pistons -5.5 @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, Ohio
March 2, 2019, 2:00 PM Pacific
We cashed in on both of our official picks for Friday. These plays were generated by a strategy based on the premise that really bad NBA teams are especially vulnerable against the spread just after a win. The supporting rationale for our hypothesis is that square bettors are overly impressed and ratchet expectations up too high in the wake of a bad team collecting a win (which is almost always unexpected, as teams with poor records are likely to be pegged as underdogs). This same system favors the Pistons to cover Saturday. We are wagering accordingly.
As we highlighted Friday, we found support for betting against bad teams at home after a win. Fading teams in this spot that have no better than a 40% win rate has been good for a 4% return on investment since 2005, on a 53% cover rate.
Further, per the chart below, since 2005 the worse the record of the home team off the win, the greater the profits that have accrued to fading this position. At 15-47, Cleveland has won less than 25% of its season-to-date games played, suggesting the Cavs may be particularly ripe for a let-down versus the number Saturday afternoon.
Per RotoWorld, there were a couple of recent additions to Cleveland's injury report. Kevin Love will rest Saturday, and Ante Zizic may have sustained a concussion in Thursday's win at the Knicks, so the Cavaliers' second-string Center will also miss the action versus the Pistons (along with the Cavs' first and third string Centers, who are also unavailable). Nonetheless, in the face of this bad news for Cleveland fans, the line has contracted from Cavs +6.5/6 to +5.5.