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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

Mar 1 NBA Action: Bad Teams off Wins

New Orleans Pelicans -4 @ Phoenix Suns

Chicago Bulls +2 @ Atlanta Hawks

The Suns and Hawks share several commonalities that we think are relevant to Friday's NBA proceedings.

  • Both teams are very bad. Phoenix ranks 32nd and Atlanta 28th by record.

  • They are each coming off underdog wins. Phoenix knocked off the Heat Monday despite receiving 7.5 points, and Atlanta beat Minnesota at home Tuesday as 5 point dogs.

  • And both teams will face opposition with losing records on their home floors Friday. The Hawks will host the 17-45 Bulls, while the 27-36 Pelicans will visit the the desert.

This combination of events has generally coalesced to create a tough spot for the cover in the past. Accordingly, we are betting on the road teams ATS in both cases.

According to data from BetLabsSports, since 2005, betting against teams at home, off a victory, and with win rates of no better than 40% has been good for a 4% return on investment (ROI).

Fading such teams when they are taking points has delivered an even more impressive historical ROI of 13%, on a record of 113-81-5 ATS (including a 17-14-1 ATS run this season). Yahoo! Sports lists the Pelicans as giving 4 points to the Suns at present.

Further, at 143-93-2 ATS (60% cover rate, 17% ROI), betting against bad home dogs after a win has been even better still in the last third of the regular NBA season.

At the team level, betting trends too suggest a Pelicans edge, as New Orleans has covered the last five head-to-head meetings with the Suns overall, and five of the last six in Phoenix.

Finally, our computer simulation work also offers a strong indication the Pels' cover.

Regarding Chicago at Atlanta, we note that, since 2005, fading bad teams at home, off a win has returned 5% on a 54% cover rate against other bad teams (the Bulls have won less than 28% of their games this year). This system also works exceptionally well in the latter portion of the season, as indicated by the 50-33-2 ATS record (60% cover rate, 18% ROI) since 2005.

The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last five versus the Hawks and 4-2 in their last half dozen at State Farm Arena. Atlanta is 11-18 ATS at home and 1-4 ATS as the home favorite, while Chicago is 16-13 ATS on the road.

Happy betting!!

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