Feb 24 NBA Action: Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors
Photo: Gary Bassing, NBAE/Getty Images
Orlando Magic +9.5 @ Toronto Raptors
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario, Canada February 24, 2019, 12:30 PM PDT
Saturday we highlighted three plays triggered by a system in our stable, based on betting against high-quality home teams off narrow wins. The rationale being that the rigorous NBA schedule generally does not afford teams time to recuperate after being pushed to the limit (this strategy is detailed more fully in Saturday's write-up).
The graphic above demonstrates the record of this strategy since 2005 (but before Saturday's action). As each of the teams indicated yesterday cashed in, this system improves to 263-213-4 ATS alltime, and 22-13 ATS season-to-date.
This approach says back the Magic to cover Sunday at Toronto, given that the Raptors victory over the Spurs Friday was not secured until the last 15 seconds of play.
Also supporting a play on the road team, we note that fading the dinos versus the number has been easy this year, as Toronto's 25-34-1 ATS record is the third-worst in the League season-to-date. The Raptors are 18-29-1 ATS laying chalk, 13-17 ATS at home and 16-25 versus the number facing competition from the Eastern Conference.
Contrarily, Orlando ranks among the top-ten teams in the League ATS overall, and at 16-12 ATS, the Magic are fourth best in the NBA at collecting the cover on the road. The Magic are 22-18 ATS this year as underdogs. Orlando is also 7-4 ATS in head-to- head action with Toronto since 2016.