Photo: Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
Kings +5.5 @ Thunder
Rockets +9.0 @ Warriors
Timberwolves +12.5 @ Bucks
The Warriors just eked out a win vs. the Kings Thursday. In a game that was back and forth essentially the whole way, Golden State entered the fourth quarter down two, but managed to best the visiting team by four to secure the SU win.
One system on our dashboard revolves around fading high-quality teams coming off narrow wins. The theory underlying the strategy is that, in contests where good teams are tested throughout, above average levels of mental and physical effort are required to stave off the particularly gamey opposition. This excess spent energy is commonly not replenished by the next out, typically only a night or two later.
Data from BetLabs validates this thinking, as, since 2005, NBA teams with a win rate of 65% or better are 213-260-8 ATS (45%) playing at home after a win by four or less. This system is 19-13 ATS this season.
Three games fit this system Saturday.
Sacramento +5.5 @ Oklahoma City
The Thunder won the last head-to-head meeting with the Kings by 19. Prior to that instance though, Sacramento had rattled off six consecutive underdog covers.
But OKC is a proficient 15-12 ATS from the position of home favorite and 23-14 ATS following a win.
Sac, on the other hand, is 9-13 ATS receiving points while traveling, but the Kings are 21-17 versus the number against the West and 17-9-1 ATS off a loss.
Houston +9 @ Golden State
The Rockets are 4-6 ATS as road dogs, and 11-13 ATS, so the present does not appear to be an ideal spot for Houston. However, the Warriors are only 11-17-1 ATS layng chalk at home, so the Houston cover is by no means a stretch.
Also, as an enhancement to the system represented above, we note that when the team off the narrow victory was slated as a double-digit favorite in their prior campaign, the probability of covering their next game at home is much lower (the Warriors closed at -12.5 vs. Sac Thursday). Underdogs are 59-26 ATS (69%) facing such teams.
Minnesota +12.5 @ Milwaukee
The Bucks are a great team against the spread, including a 16-11-1 ATS stint laying chalk at Fiserv Forum, and a cover streak of four consecutive games.
However, the present might be tough position for Milwaukee to collect the cover. Teams on moderate ATS win streaks receiving double digit points in non-conference action have been strong plays historically, generating a whopping 24% ROI since 2005 (the Wolves has covered the spread in each of their last four games).
Happy betting!!