Photo Marcia Jose Sanchez/AP
LA Lakers @ Atlanta Hawks
State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
February 12, 2019, 4:30 PM PDT
Our sim work says back the away team for the ATS win this afternoon. We are betting accordingly. In addition to our multiple, independent computer simulation routines that endorse a Lakers' victory versus the number though, we note a big-picture trend that likewise supports the idea that LA can cover the chalk Tuesday.
Per The Action Network, teams with incentive to tank, such as the Hawks, tend to not cover during the latter third of the NBA season when cast as home dog. Specifically, for games 55 through 82, the strategy of betting against host teams with win rates of less than 40% that are receiving points from teams with win rates of better than 48% has delivered a 13% ROI since 2005.
81% of the spread wagers laid on this contest are backing the Lakers, while 86% of dollars bet against-the-spread are down on LA. The line opened at Lakers -5.5 and remains at that level currently, but has vacillated between -5 and -6.
There is evidence that wiseguys like the Hawks and the points (The Action Network reports seven separate instances of sharps jumping on Atlanta +5.5). If this interest ultimately pressures the line down to 5, a second system favoring LA will be triggered.
Road favorites with the support of greater than 70% of spread bets have submitted a 6% ROI since 2005 when the betting line moves up to a point toward the opposition.
Happy betting!!