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Feb 6 NBA Action: Washington Wizards @ Milwaukee Bucks

Photo: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports


Wizards +12 @ Bucks

February 6, 2019, 5:00 PM PDT

Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI

Our computer simulation routines like the Wizards to collect the road cover this afternoon. Accordingly, we are biting the bullet and taking the Wiz plus the dozen points. 

Consistent with the indication from our sim work, big home favorites on winning streaks have demonstrated vulnerability historically. Per data from BetLabsSports, since 2005 NBA teams that collected "W"'s in each of their last four out, and that were expected to win in their own building by 10 or more are a perfectly fadeable 56-82-1 ATS (41%).

We also note that losing teams off bad losses have been solid bets facing elite competition. Squads with win rates no greater than 43%, that were favored last out, and that were on a 1 to 4 game skid have covered at a 59% clip versus opposition with a 70% win rate or better. 

Bottom line: As bad as the Wall-less Wizards have been, our discipline compels us to take the points here. Our sim work as well as at least a couple of big picture betting trends support the idea of the ATS win for thew road team...and stranger things have happened. 

We draw some comfort from the knowing that sharp bettors seem to be aligned with our thinking. As of the time of this writing, 72% of spread bets are behind the Greek Freak and the Bucks, however, as a sign that large wagers are getting down on the hapless Wizards, the line has tightened from the opening level of Washington +12 to +10.5.

Happy betting!!

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