Photo credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea
Los Angeles Lakers @ Indiana Pacers
Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
February 5, 2019, 4:00PM
Our computer simulation work is emitting strong signals in favor of the Lakers to cover at the Pacers this afternoon.
Of some concern to us though, the Pacers are 3-1 ATS this year as underdogs at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Indiana is also 6-3 ATS in the second game of back-to-back sets. Nonetheless, courtesy of the BetLabsSports database, broader context suggests the #LakeShow boys have history on their side Tuesday.
For one, un-rested underdogs have historically struggled in homecoming games. Specifically, teams, such as the Pacers, that are receiving points at home in the second game in as many nights, and after a three to five-game road stand have delivered a wallet-shrinking 42-60 ATS record (41%) since 2005. This is to say that fading this set of conditions has been solidly profitable (though this system is a disappointing 1-2 ATS so far this season).
On the other side of the ball, we have observed that teams in a tough patch, that are favored to win a game against non-conference opposition while on an extended away stint have been solid plays historically. Squads on their third or fourth straight road game, after winning no more than four of their last 10 games, and that are laying points to a team from the other conference are 60-46-1 ATS (57%) since 2005.
Of note, the sharper side of the betting public might be at odds with our thinking. SportsInsights reports that Bookmaker.eu opened the betting line for this contest at Lakers -3.5. However, despite L.A. attracting the support of 79% of spread wagers as of the time of this writing, the spread has tightened to 2.5-3 at most shops. This action hints that bigger (generally better informed) bettors may be lining up with the Pacers. However, we are not overly concerned, as adverse line movement against darling road favorites has actually been supportive of the cover in NBA betting action.
Away teams laying chalk with the backing of more than 70% of spread wagers have delivered a 6% ROI since 2005 when the line moves as much as a point toward the other guys.
Separately, Rotoworld.com reports that LeBron James will play. Kyle Kuzma and Ivica Zubac are listed as Probable and Josh Hart is Questionable; there is no update on Tyson Chandler's status and Lonzo Ball is presumed to be out.
For the Pacers, Doug McDermott and Victor Oladipo are out.
Bottom line: The combination of the signal from our computer simulation program, the broad historical betting trends that suggest the present is a tough spot for Indiana and a good place for L.A. and the change in the betting spread outweigh the positive team-level trends that imply an edge for the Pacers. As such, we are comfortable laying the 2.5 and backing a Lakers cover this afternoon.
Happy betting!!