Superbowl Day NBA Action: LA Clippers @ Toronto Raptors
Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
LA Clippers @ Toronto Raptors -9.5
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario
February 3, 2019, 12:00PM PDT
Per our sim work, we are laying the 9.5 and siding with the Raptors at home this afternoon.
Granted, Toronto is tied with Memphis for the dubious distinction of dead last ATS overall (22-30-1) this season. However, the Raptors are better (if not profitable) at home (12-14 ATS). We think history is on the dinos' side today though, as good NBA teams tend to cover at home after dropping one in their building last out. Since 2005, teams that made the playoffs a season ago and that are at least 60% SU this year have been good for a 6% ROI at home after a home loss.
When the spread opens pitting such teams as double-digit favorites, the smaller sample yields an even more profitable result: 28-17-2 ATS (62%), for a 21% return on investment.