Grizzlies +7.5 @ Hornets
Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
February 1, 2019, 4:00PM PDT
Primarily on the basis of our computer simulation work, we like the Grizz to cover the +7.5 at the Hornets tonight. We think the spread here should be closer to 5, implying about a bucket's worth of value on the road dogs this afternoon.
Supporting this pick, we note that home favorites that are backed by a majority of spread tickets and that lost their prior out by at least 30 have struggled to cover the chalk. Per BetLabsSports.com, since 2005, this contingent is 28-48-3 ATS (40%)--Charlotte returns to action at home tonight, after a 32-point throttling at Boston's hands Wednesday.
Moreover, teams, like Memphis, that are off three consecutive covers tend to fare well against home teams following big losses. This cohort is 43-36-2 (54%) since 2005.
Happy betting!!