- Phote credit: Bill Baptist, NBAE/Getty Images
Houston Rockets @ Detroit Pistons +4.5 (-108)
We have observed a reliable indication from our computer simulation work in favor of the home dogs when Houston travels to Detroit for the second head-to-head contest between these teams in the last three days.
Consistent with this signal, we note that historically it has been profitable to fade road favorites, like Houston today, off five-game SU win streaks. Since 2005, such a strategy has generated about a 12% ROI and a 58% cover rate.
In addition to rattling off five absolute wins in their last five games, the Rockets have beat the number in their last four out. Fading away teams that are expected to win after securing covers in each of their last four games has been approximately equally profitable to fading road favs after five SU wins. Wagering counter to this cohort is 100-73-2 ATS since 2005.
On the other side of the ball, backing home dogs on three-game ATS win streaks and that won three off their last five SU has also been profitable, generally speaking. The Pistons fit this bill this evening.
Thus, on the strength of our sim work, in addition to the supportive historical backdrop described above, we are betting on the up-and-coming Pistons to cover versus the up-and-coming Rockets.