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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

Nov 15 NBA Action: Atlanta Hawks @ Denver Nuggets

Atlanta Hawks +14 (-108) @ Denver Nuggets o222.5 (-108)

The Nuggets will host the Hawks this evening as 14 point favorites. Per BetLabsSports' database, double-digit home favorites have only covered at a 47.5% clip since 2005.

Worse still for Denver backers, teams expected to win at home after dropping their last four out have been solid fades since 2003, generating a 9% ROI, on a 56% cover rate.

We also note that the Hawks have covered their last six head-to-head versus Denver, and are 4-2 ATS in their last half dozen at Pepsi Center.

Atlanta is also 3-1 this season receiving at least ten points.

Separately, the OVER has exhibited a modest edge in games featuring two 0-3 teams in their most recent play (194-171-5, 53%). When such games sport a double-digit spread though, the OVER's hit rate improves to 60%.

Bottom line: The Nuggets are laying double-digit chalk after a dropping their last four games straight up and against the spread (in fact, Denver has blown the cover in their last four contests by an average margin of ten points per game). Clearly the Nuggets have lost the supreme form on display through the first ten games of the season.

On the other hand, the Hawks are a bad team, but are gamely. Atlanta fell to the defending champs two nights ago in a closely contested game (save the third quarter), and came up a single point short two nights earlier against LeBron James' Lakers--the Hawks covered both of those games. We expect spirited competition at Pepsi Center again tonight, and are content to take the road dogs plus the 14.

Moreover, given the propensity for the OVER to cash in from the present spot, we are also pairing our Atlanta +14 wager with a play on OVER 222.5.

Happy betting!!

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