Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 (-105) & Golden State Warriors
We have seen solid indications from our computer simulation work in favor of a Bucks cover at the Warriors tonight. Additionally, we have isolated historical trends that validate our thinking. As such, we are comfortable backing Milwaukee ATS.
Season-to-date record on published
ATS & O/U picks: 15-11-1 (58%)
Fading teams, such as the Warriors, on the fourth to sixth game of a home stand and after they have covered at least three of their last four has been quite profitable over the first quarter of the NBA season. This strategy has generated a 15% ROI since 2005.
It has been likewise profitable to back good teams, like the Bucks, away after a loss. Road teams with a SU win rate of at least 70%, off a loss while traveling have been strong plays through the first half of the year. This system has delivered an ROI of 22% since 2005 (and is 16-5 ATS, for a 50% ROI through only the first 21 games of each season since 2005).
Bottom line: The pro-Milwaukee (ATS) signal from our computer simulation work as well as our interpretation of history suggests the present represents a good spot for Milwaukee to rebound from Tuesday's loss at Portland, and a tough situation for Golden State to extend their four-game cover streak. And, while it is (still) emotionally challenging to bet against this Golden State team, when they are rolling (as they appear to be), the numbers compel us to back the Bucks (who, by the way, are no slouches this season)
By the way, the line did not seem to budge at several shops on the definitive announcement this afternoon that Draymond Green would not suit up for Golden State. FiveThirtyEight's player valuation framework estimates that Jordan Bell's +/- is about 1.5 points worse than Green's, suggesting Vegas' nonchalance about the injury report update created value with the Bucks (assuming Bell inherits Green's foregone minutes; at 4.3, Green's +/-, per FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO methodology, is approaching six points better than the average replacement level player).
Happy betting!!