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Nov 5 NBA Action: Boston Celtics @ Denver Nuggets

- Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing, USA TODAY Sports

 

Boston Celtics +1 (-112) @ Denver Nuggets

We deem the present spot to be tough for the prospect of the Nuggets cover this afternoon. Similarly, the Celtics appear ripe to best the number from the current position. As such, we are backing the road dogs in this one.

Supporting our inclination, we note that Western Conference teams, like the Nuggets, that are traveling east after winning their last four in general, and their last game by a 10 to 20 point margin have been solid fades since 2005, delivering a staggering ROI of 24%.

(This system is 25-16 ATS over the first half of each season since 2005 and 14-7-1 (67%) over the first quarter of the year.)

Across the court, the Celtics are taking points on the road tonight, immediately following an away loss and after winning three of their last four. In the past, this set of circumstances has coalesced to form a favorable position from which to back road dogs.

This approach has been good for an 11% ROI since 2007 (including a 53-36-1 ATS record over the first half of the season and a 21-12 ATS stint through the first 21 games of each year).

Not to mention the Celtics have fared quite well when traveling after a loss in the Brad Stevens-era. Since 2013, Boston is 57-44-1 ATS under these circumstances, according to The Action Network.

Further, the Celts have also performed very well facing the best teams in the NBA since Coach Stevens assumed the mantle. In fact the better the team, the better Boston's results.

Happy betting!!

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