Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets -4.5 (-105)
We see the present situation as a solid opportunity for Denver to secure its second consecutive cover (and fourth straight-up win) in a row. As such, we are laying the 4.5 and betting on the Nuggets to beat the number at home this evening.
Supporting our thesis for the Denver cover this evening, we note that since 2005 home favorites that won their three previous games (SU) and then faced competition from the same division covered at a 61% clip (considering only the first through 41st regular season game of each season since 2005).
(This system is 32-15 through the first 21 games of each year.)
Moreover, current conditions appear almost as menacing for the prospects of a Utah ATS win as they do favorable for Denver to beat the number.
For instance, dogs off two-game SU/ATS losing streaks and that were favored last game have covered only 43% of the time when they faced opposition from the same division in their next contest.
(This set of criteria is 12-7 ATS through the first 21 games of each year.)
Happy betting!!