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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

Nov 1 NBA Action: Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics

- Photo credit: Morry Gash, Associated Press

 

Milwaukee Bucks +3.0 (-102) @ Boston Celtics

The circumstances surrounding this evening's match-up between the Bucks and the Celts seem to favor the road cover. Accordingly, we are taking the three points and siding with Milwaukee versus the number.

In support of our pick, since 2005 regular season underdogs, like Milwaukee, that covered four in a row have been great bets through the first half of the season.

Per the 48-32-3 ATS (60%) record, this system has proven quite effective during the first quarter (i.e. 21 games) of the year too.

When an underdog off a four-game cover streak made a playoff appearance last year, that team has gone 41-21-2 ATS (66%) in their next out over the first half of each season since 2005. This framework is a remarkably consistent 20-9-1 ATS considering only the first 21 games of each year.

Separately, road dogs on two nights rest, with straight-up wins in six of their last seven games have also been solid plays.

(This modification is 22-12 ATS over the first half of the season and 8-1 ATS during the first quarter of each year.)

Thus, the validation for the Bucks cover from the present situation appears pretty ample.

 

Season-to-date record on

published ATS & O/U

picks: 11-7-1 (61%)

 

Also consistent with expectations for Milwaukee, we have observed general tendencies that suggest the present is a tough spot for Boston.

Slightly favored teams playing their second consecutive home game, after a three-game SU win streak have covered at only 40% since 2005.

Clearly, fading such teams has been quite profitable in aggregate, but this system has also generated hefty gains early in the season. The approach is 20-10-2 ATS (66%) considering only the first 41 games of each year since 2005, and 13-6-1 (72%) through the first 21 games.

Happy betting!!

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