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Trick or Treat Day NBA Action: Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks

- Photo credit: Ron Hoskins, NBAE

Indiana Pacers -6.0 (-105) @ New York Knicks

We like the Pacers to cover this evening, as the present seems to be a good spot for Indiana and a bad one for New York. As such, we are laying the six points and backing the road team.


Season-to-date record on

published NBA ATS &

O/U picks: 10-7 (59%)


After rattling off consecutive wins and collecting the "W" in four of their prior six out, Indiana lost to the Blazers a couple of days ago, as four-point favorites. In our estimation, Monday's setback supports the idea of the Pacer's cover this evening, as quality teams off unexpected losses have been good bets when cast as road favorites.

Teams that reached the playoffs last year, lost their last contest (both SU and ATS) as the favorite and now must lay points on the road have covered at about a 55% clip since 2005, delivering almost an 8% ROI.

On the other side of the ball, the Knicks snapped a five-game (SU) skid Monday, with a 15-point win and cover versus Brooklyn. We interpret this situation too as being consistent with an Indiana cover, given that betting against bad teams after standout performances has likewise been a profitable approach.

Home dogs that won their last game SU/ATS but dropped the three before have been solid fades since 2005.

Importantly, at 55-35-1 ATS (61%), this system is even more profitable during first half of the season.

Happy betting!!

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