Utah Jazz -4.5 -105 @ Dallas Mavericks
Our computer sim works makes the Jazz to be about six points better than the Mavericks at home. As such, we are comfortable laying the 4.5 and backing the road favs.
Season-to-date record on published
ATS & O/U picks: 8-7
Consistent with this view, we note that, in the first half of the season, bad teams tend to struggle against the spread in the first game home after a tough road trip. Per the graphic below, teams that failed to make the playoffs last year, at home after back-to-back road losses are 50-67-2 ATS (includes only the first 41 games of each season since 2005).
Tonight's contest represents the third stop on a four-game road trip for Utah. In their first two games, the Jazz beat and covered at Houston and New Orleans. Historically, quality teams (i.e. ones that made the playoffs last year) that won and covered their last two of a three or four-game road trip have been solid wagers:
Happy betting!!