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Phoenix Suns +7.5 (-102) @ Memphis Grizzlies
Our computer simulation work suggests the Grizzlies at home are only about a long-ball better than the Suns this afternoon, implying more than four points of value with the road dogs.
Season-to-date record on published
ATS & O/U picks: 8-6
* We incorrectly reflected our season-to-date record as 7-5 yesterday. It should have been 7-4.
In their last three out, Phoenix lost at Denver, at Golden State and most recently versus the Lakers (and failed to cover in each case). This observation does not dissuade us however, as poor teams have been pretty solid bets on the road after especially tough patches. Squads that failed to make the playoffs in the prior season and that are playing on the road following a sequence of three straight up and ATS losses have been good for a 6% ROI in regular season action since 2005.
When the team is facing opposition that has covered no more than half of their games, the hit rate improves to 57% (74-54-2 ATS) and profitability more than doubles (13% ROI).
Similarly, teams, like Memphis, that dropped their last out SU and ATS, and are now laying at least seven at home have only covered at a 46% clip historically (109-129-7).
Happy betting!!