- Photo credit: Kevin L. Cox, USA TODAY Sports
Sacramento Kings +11 -104 @ Denver Nuggets
Though Denver is off to a lightning fast start to kick off the 2018-2019 NBA season, we think the stars might be aligned for the Kings to hand the Nuggets their first ATS loss of the year.
First, we note that covering double digit chalk is tough business. Since 2004 dogs of 10 or better have covered at a profitable 53% rate (1367-1233-52 ATS). But maybe this Denver squad is different, right? The Nuggets have, after all, opened the season with a perfect three wins and three covers--including knocking off the defending champs as 4.5 point underdogs most recently. Since 2004, only 25 teams have gotten out of the blocks this quickly; this group went 15-10 ATS in game 4.
Very true, however, a couple of other considerations are shading our thinking about tonight's showdown in Denver. For one, we have observed teams on at least the third game of an extended home stand have not been profitable against teams playing at least the second game of a road tour. The visitors are 977-908-40 ATS (52%) since 2004.
Also, historically, good teams tend to struggle to cover against bad teams. Since 2004, in regular season NBA action, teams with a win rate of at least 75% are 361-425-11 ATS (46%) against teams that have won no more than 35% of the time.
Putting it all together, regular season teams are 20-30-2 ATS over the last 13 years when, after winning three in a row, and in their third (or more) straight game at home, they must lay double-digit chalk to competition with a losing record.
When we relax the spread constraint from 10 or more to at least 7 (to increase the sample size and check the robustness of the conclusion), the result holds. Teams are 33-56-2 ATS from this spot.
Finally, we note that since the start of the 2015-2016 season, bettors have fared well to back teams with less than a majority of public bets against the spread, when the percentage of dollars wagered ATS is greater than 50. Over this span, playing the sharps/squares discrepancy has amassed a 53% cover rate (353-319-7). So far this season though, the strategy has been sterling, generating a 35% ROI on a 13-6 ATS showing.
As of the time of this writing, 42% of spread bets were down on Sacramento, however, 60% of dollars wagered against the spread are with the away, dogs.
Happy betting!!